Sunday, February 28, 2016

New market storm could catch eurozone unprepared

A rainbow is seen behind European flags during a eurozone summit. Photo: Reuters

Distracted by an unresolved migration crisis and Britain's European Union referendum, eurozone leaders could be caught unprepared by a new storm on financial markets. Global market turmoil since the start of the year has helped set warning lights flashing in eurozone sovereign bond markets. In early February, the premium that investors charge to hold Portuguese, Spanish and Italian government debt rather than German bonds hit some of the highest levels since the eurozone crisis that peaked in 2011-2012. European bank shares have been badly hit by concerns over their high stock of non-performing loans, new regulatory burdens and a squeeze on profits due to sub-zero official interest rates. New EU banking regulations that force shareholders and bondholders to take first losses if a bank needs rescuing are further spooking the market, notably in Italy. All this comes at a time when public resistance to further austerity measures has surged all over southern Europe, producing unstable results at the ballot box. Furthermore, the storm clouds are gathering above a tenuous and slow eurozone economic recovery – growth is officially forecast to reach 1.9 per cent this year versus around...

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