Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Volatility was the order of the day during January

The first month of 2016 can be described as a tale of two halves, with EM weakness and disappointing global economic data leading risky assets lower in the first half, with the second half characterised by some form of market friendly tones and measures by the developed world's leading central banks. Equities, currencies, commodities, emerging markets, bonds (both investment grade and high yield) are amongst the key asset classes which had their fair share of volatility in 2015, but few would have envisaged what the first couple of weeks of 2016 would have in store for investors. In the sharp reverse in risk aversion, markets witnessed a marked flight to high quality, lower risk assets, with investment grade bonds (particularly sovereign bonds) benefitting from healthy price gains. Economic data was nothing to write home about either. Eurozone inflationary data remained unchanged Chinese PMI and data relating to economic activity resumed their downward trajectory. The last couple of months also indicate that economic data and conditions in the US and in Europe deteriorated. US consumers consumed less than forecast in December, with producer prices registering a decline. This has...

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